Performance
Don't trust the model. Verify it.
Every official prediction is timestamped, locked before the game, settled afterward, and included in the historical record.
Public prospective performance tracking is being established
Two questions, measured separately.
We never blend prediction accuracy and ROI into a single number. Forecast quality and value performance answer different questions.
Forecast quality
How well the model predicts outcomes. Measured independently of any market price.
Games predicted—Official, locked predictions
Accuracy—Directional hit rate
Brier Score—Probabilistic error (lower is better)
Log Loss—Probabilistic error (lower is better)
Calibration—Predicted vs. observed frequency
Model era—Active model version
Value performance
How the value thesis performed. Reported separately from forecast accuracy.
Qualifying opportunities—Decisions that cleared the value bar
Paper ROI—Prospective, pre-fee
Units—Prospective units
CLV—Closing line value
EV at entry—Expected value when locked
Drawdown—Largest peak-to-trough