Inside SharpDeck · AI sports predictions
The game and its context. Together.
From the first forecast to the final result, keep the information that matters in view.
The board
| Time | Matchup | Mkt | Seg | Line | Best | Edge | Str | Band | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live · 2 | |||||||||||
| T6 | BAL @ DET3–4 | ML | FG | — | -118FD | +15.8 | 100 | GEM | |||
| T6 | BAL @ DET | TOTAL | FG | u8.5 | -108DK | +6.1 | 72 | GOOD | |||
| Upcoming · 5 | |||||||||||
| 7:10 PM | SD @ COL | ML | FG | — | -142MGM | +8.4 | 86 | STRONG | |||
| 7:40 PM | NYM @ PHI | ML | F5 | — | -125CZR | +1.3 | 44 | SMALL | |||
| 8:05 PM | KC @ HOU | ML | FG | — | +102FD | -0.5 | 12 | NONE | |||
| 9:38 PM | SEA @ LAA | ML | FG | — | -134DK | Model columns are in every plan — start a free trial to see them | |||||
| 10:10 PM | NYY @ MIN | TOTAL | FG | o7.5 | -104MGM | +4.9 | 64 | GOOD | |||
| Final · 1 | |||||||||||
| FINAL | ATH @ TB2–6 | ML | FG | — | -115FD | +6.8 | 81 | STRONG | |||
Live · 2
- BAL @ DET3–4T6ML · FG · DET
- Best
- -118 FD
- Edge
- +15.8
- Str
- 100
- Band
- GEM
- BAL @ DETT6TOTAL · FG u8.5 · UNDER
- Best
- -108 DK
- Edge
- +6.1
- Str
- 72
- Band
- GOOD
Upcoming · 5
- SD @ COL7:10 PMML · FG · SD
- Best
- -142 MGM
- Edge
- +8.4
- Str
- 86
- Band
- STRONG
- NYM @ PHI7:40 PMML · F5 · PHI
- Best
- -125 CZR
- Edge
- +1.3
- Str
- 44
- Band
- SMALL
- KC @ HOU8:05 PMML · FG
- Best
- +102 FD
- Edge
- -0.5
- Str
- 12
- Band
- NONE
- SEA @ LAA9:38 PMML · FG · SEA
- Best
- -134 DK
- Edge
- Str
- Band
- TRIAL
- NYY @ MIN10:10 PMTOTAL · FG o7.5 · OVER
- Best
- -104 MGM
- Edge
- +4.9
- Str
- 64
- Band
- GOOD
Final · 1
- ATH @ TB2–6FINALML · FG · TB
- Best
- -115 FD
- Edge
- +6.8
- Str
- 81
- Band
- STRONG
Read a row
Twelve columns. One question.
Every row on the board answers the same thing: is the price you can get better than the price the model says this is worth? Here is that row, taken apart.
Matchup
BAL @ DET
Mkt
ML · FG
Fair
-148
Best
-118 FD
Edge
+15.8
EV
+0.13
Str
100
Band
GEM
- MatchupThe game
- Away @ home, with the live score once it starts.
- MktThe market
- Which bet this row is about. ML is the moneyline; FG is the full game, F5 the first five innings.
- FairWhat the model thinks it is worth
- The model’s win probability expressed as a price. This is an opinion, not an offer — you cannot bet it.
- BestWhat you can actually get
- The best price across the sportsbooks we read, and which book is showing it. Stale books are excluded.
- EdgeThe gap between the two
- How far the market’s price sits from the model’s, in percentage points. This is the whole reason the row exists.
- EVWhat the gap is worth
- Expected value per $1 at the listed price, if the model is right. Edge says how far apart; EV says how much that distance pays.
- StrOne number, 0 to 100
- Strength compresses the whole row into a single score, so a slate can be scanned down one column.
- BandWhere that number lands
- The named tier for the score. GEM is the top of the ladder and the rarest.
The strength ladder · 0–100
- None
- 0–39
- Small
- 40–59
- Good
- 60–79
- Strong
- 80–99
- Gem
- 100
A higher band means a wider gap between the model and the market — not a higher chance of winning. Most rows on a normal slate land in None or Small, and the board says so rather than manufacturing an edge. Illustrative example
The instruments
Five surfaces. One slate.
Five surfaces, one slate — with each capability's coverage stated sport by sport in the matrix below.
AThe board
One row per market
Every game on the slate, every market on the game, priced against the book. Filter to gems, live or upcoming; sort by strength or by edge.
6 sports
BGame Center
Stay with the game
Observed scores, periods and plays beside the original forecast — so a result never quietly replaces what was said beforehand.
Live scores
CCheckpoints
Published, then frozen
An early read 24 hours out and the main forecast at 60 minutes, calculated independently. Once published, neither is rewritten.
24h · 60m
DSharpDeck AI
The numbers explained
A grounded thesis for the decision, and questions you can ask of it. The figures come from the model — the AI reads them, it does not invent them.
Pro
EThe record
Including the misses
Every forecast scored for accuracy and settled at the best price when it was published, graded from official results, with losses, ties and voids all in view.
Open to all
Not a sportsbook
SharpDeck publishes analysis. It places no wagers and guarantees no outcome.
Coverage, sport by sport
What actually works,
sport by sport.
Six sports, one public record. Every forecast SharpDeck publishes is graded against the result — and NFL's pregame model passed a held-out evaluation on 543 games before it shipped.
How to read the labels — “Validated model” means the model passed a held-out evaluation before release — NFL's pregame model beat its baseline on 543 games it had never seen. “Limited” means the forecast is published and graded in the public record, but not on a model release that passed review; MLB's pregame forecast is the de-vigged market consensus.
- Boards & scores
- Available
- Model forecast
- Validated model
- Live analysis
- Coming soon
- AI analysis
- Coming soon
- Boards & scores
- Available
- Model forecast
- Limited
- Live analysis
- Available
- AI analysis
- Available
- Boards & scores
- Available
- Model forecast
- Limited
- Live analysis
- Coming soon
- AI analysis
- Coming soon
- Boards & scores
- Available
- Model forecast
- Limited
- Live analysis
- Coming soon
- AI analysis
- Coming soon
- Boards & scores
- Available
- Model forecast
- Limited
- Live analysis
- Coming soon
- AI analysis
- Coming soon
- Boards & scores
- Available
- Model forecast
- Limited
- Live analysis
- Coming soon
- AI analysis
- Coming soon
The decision
One screen, one call.
The model’s probability beside the market’s, the edge between them, and the reasons behind it — so a number is never the whole answer.
Detroit
Moneyline -118
- Model probability
- 69.1%
- Market probability
- 53.4%
- Edge
- +15.8 pts
- Expected value
- +$0.13 / $1
Why SharpDeck likes it
- Team strength
- Starting pitcher
- Recent form
- Home field
A forecast has a history
How it works- 1
24 hours before
The early view
A first assessment, recorded with the inputs available then.
- 2
60 minutes before
The main forecast
A separate calculation. The original selection stays locked.
- 3
During the game
The live observation
Updated analysis where supported, kept separate from both originals.
- 4
After the result
The complete record
Each published checkpoint is graded against its own selection.
The published record
A result you can trace.
Inspect the selection, probability, publication time and model label. Correct and incorrect forecasts remain visible, each settled at the best sportsbook price when it was published.
See the AI work
An analyst that explains the numbers.
SharpDeck AI reads the same model output you see and puts it in plain language — what the edge is, why it exists, and when to pass. The probabilities and prices come from the model; the AI never invents them.
Detroit
Moneyline -118
- Model probability
- 69.1%
- Market probability
- 53.4%
- Edge
- +15.8 pts
- Expected value
- +$0.13 / $1
Why SharpDeck likes it
- Team strength
- Starting pitcher
- Recent form
- Home field
Detroit projects at 69.1% to win, but the market is pricing them near 53%. That gap is the whole story here: the model likes the starter's matchup and Detroit's contact profile against this bullpen, and the recorded price hasn't caught up. The edge is real but not enormous — treat it as a genuine opportunity, not a lock.
Why is the edge here and not on the total?
The edge sits on the moneyline because that's where the model and the recorded price disagree most. On the total, the model's number is within a point of the market, so there's nothing to act on — SharpDeck leaves it as a pass rather than manufacturing a play.
A recorded example of the SharpDeck AI analyst on an MLB game. Available on the Pro plan. Figures are illustrative and not a live price or a recommendation to wager.
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