MLB predictions
MLB win probabilities, before first pitch.
SharpDeck forecasts the MLB slate 24 hours and 60 minutes before first pitch, follows games live, and publishes how every forecast turned out.
The last 30 days
Graded in public, losses included.
59.0% of 39 graded MLB forecasts called the winner.
24 hours before
The early forecast: a first win probability with the inputs available a day out.
54.2% correct
13–11 over the last 30 days
60 minutes before
The main forecast, calculated independently once lineups and prices settle. This is the headline record.
59.0% correct
23–16 over the last 30 days
During the game
The live forecast, taken once the game is under way and graded as its own record.
68.4% correct
26–12 over the last 30 days
Figures come straight from the public record API at request time. Nothing is rounded up or filtered.
1 game forecast todayFirst up 8:00 PM ET
| Time | Matchup | Mkt | Seg | Line | Best | Edge | Str | Band | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upcoming · 1 | |||||||||||
| 8:00 PM | MIL @ TB | ML | FG | — | -136BR | Model columns are in every plan — start a free trial to see them | |||||
Upcoming · 1
- MIL @ TB8:00 PMML · FG
- Best
- -136 BR
- Edge
- Str
- Band
- TRIAL
The SharpDeck model
One forecast, published before it counts.
Each forecast is locked at its checkpoint and graded against the result. Nothing is recalculated after the game, and nothing is removed from the record.
Baseball is where SharpDeck runs deepest: pregame forecasts built on the de-vigged consensus of the betting market, SharpDeck's own live model once the game is under way, the best sportsbook price beside every forecast, and an AI analyst that explains each game.
What you get for MLB
- Boards & scores
- Available
- Model forecast
- Limited
- Live analysis
- Available
- AI analysis
- Available
Forecast ≠ price
Every forecast carries its price.
A forecast names the more likely outcome; the price says what backing it pays. Each forecast is recorded with the best sportsbook price when it was published and settled as 1 unit at that price, so the record shows both whether it was right and what it returned. The board puts the fair price beside the best price, so a likely winner at a poor price is easy to spot.
How accurate are SharpDeck's MLB predictions?
Every MLB forecast is graded in the public record, wins and losses together. The accuracy shown on this page is read live from that record for the last 30 days, so you can check it yourself before signing up.
When are the MLB forecasts published?
Twice before each game — 24 hours out and 60 minutes before first pitch — plus a live forecast once the game is under way. Each checkpoint is locked when it is published and graded as its own record.
Where do the MLB forecasts come from?
Before first pitch, the forecast is the de-vigged consensus of the betting market: the sportsbooks' prices with their margin removed. Once the game is under way, SharpDeck's own live model takes over, and it is graded as its own record.
What is a win probability?
An estimate of how often a team wins a game like this one. A 60% forecast means the other side still wins about four times in ten — which is why SharpDeck grades forecasts over hundreds of games, not one.
Guides
Read the numbers with confidence.
- GuidesHow to read American odds: minus, plus and what they payA plain guide to moneyline odds: what the minus and plus signs mean, how much you win, and how to convert them.Read the guide →
- GuidesExpected value in sports betting, explained with real numbersWhat EV means, how to calculate it from a probability and a price, and why a +EV bet can still lose.Read the guide →
- ForecastsHow to read a forecast without confusing it with a promiseProbability, timing and the difference between an estimate and a recommendation.Read the guide →
A clearer view starts here
Get closer
to the game.
Explore the boards, understand the forecasts and follow the record — with everything switched on for your first 7 days.
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