Field notes
A little context goes a long way.
Practical guides to the numbers, the decisions and the record behind SharpDeck.
Guides
Expected value in sports betting, explained with real numbers
What EV means, how to calculate it from a probability and a price, and why a +EV bet can still lose.
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Guides
How to read American odds: minus, plus and what they pay
A plain guide to moneyline odds: what the minus and plus signs mean, how much you win, and how to convert them.
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Guides
Implied probability: what a betting price believes
Turn any price into a probability, see the sportsbook margin hiding in it, and compare it with a forecast.
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Guides
Closing line value: the best early signal of a good bet
Why the price when betting closes is the market's sharpest estimate, and how beating it is measured.
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Guides
Fair odds and no-vig prices: what a bet should cost
How to strip the sportsbook margin out of a price, and how a model's fair price is set.
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Guides
How sports prediction models work — and how to tell a good one
Probabilities, calibration and the Brier score: how forecasts are made, graded and trusted.
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Forecasts
How to read a forecast without confusing it with a promise
Probability, timing and the difference between an estimate and a recommendation.
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Prices
A likely winner is not the same as a good price
Why the most likely winner and the price on offer are different questions, and how the record settles both.
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The record
A record that includes the misses
How forecast accuracy and forecast units stay separate—and why the denominator matters.
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