NFL predictions
NFL win probabilities from a validated model.
SharpDeck's NFL pregame model passed a held-out evaluation before it shipped. Every forecast since is published before kickoff and graded in the open.
Validated modelPassed its held-out evaluation before release: a 543-game holdout, graded against the model it replaced.
The last 30 days
Graded in public, losses included.
50.8% of 59 graded NFL forecasts called the winner.
24 hours before
The early forecast: a first win probability with the inputs available a day out.
52.5% correct
31–28 over the last 30 days
60 minutes before
The main forecast, calculated independently once lineups and prices settle. This is the headline record.
50.8% correct
30–29 over the last 30 days
During the game
The live forecast, taken once the game is under way and graded as its own record.
71.2% correct
42–17 over the last 30 days
Figures come straight from the public record API at request time. Nothing is rounded up or filtered.
The SharpDeck model
One forecast, published before it counts.
Each forecast is locked at its checkpoint and graded against the result. Nothing is recalculated after the game, and nothing is removed from the record.
Weekly boards with win probabilities for covered matchups, the best price across sportsbooks beside the model's fair price, and a record you can audit week by week.
What you get for NFL
- Boards & scores
- Available
- Model forecast
- Validated model
- Live analysis
- Coming soon
- AI analysis
- Coming soon
Forecast ≠ price
Every forecast carries its price.
A forecast names the more likely outcome; the price says what backing it pays. Each forecast is recorded with the best sportsbook price when it was published and settled as 1 unit at that price, so the record shows both whether it was right and what it returned. The board puts the fair price beside the best price, so a likely winner at a poor price is easy to spot.
What makes the NFL model validated?
Before release it was evaluated on 543 regular-season games it had never seen, and it beat the model it replaced on both Brier score and accuracy. Only a model that passes that kind of held-out evaluation carries the Validated badge.
When are NFL forecasts published?
24 hours before kickoff and again 60 minutes before, once inactives and prices settle. Both are locked when published and graded separately.
How is the NFL record kept?
Every published forecast is graded against the final result and stays in the record — losses included. The numbers on this page are read live from that record.
Is a win probability a betting recommendation?
No. A forecast estimates who wins; the price says what backing it pays. SharpDeck shows the model's fair price beside the best sportsbook price, so a likely winner at a poor price is easy to spot.
Guides
Read the numbers with confidence.
- GuidesHow sports prediction models work — and how to tell a good oneProbabilities, calibration and the Brier score: how forecasts are made, graded and trusted.Read the guide →
- GuidesImplied probability: what a betting price believesTurn any price into a probability, see the sportsbook margin hiding in it, and compare it with a forecast.Read the guide →
- PricesA likely winner is not the same as a good priceWhy the most likely winner and the price on offer are different questions, and how the record settles both.Read the guide →
A clearer view starts here
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to the game.
Explore the boards, understand the forecasts and follow the record — with everything switched on for your first 7 days.
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