A probability leaves room for another outcome
A 60% estimate means the model assigns a 40% chance to the other outcomes combined. It is not a guarantee. A single loss does not establish whether a probability was well calibrated; that takes an appropriate sample of recorded forecasts.
The checkpoint matters
SharpDeck records the 24-hour early forecast and the 60-minute main forecast independently. The selection and probabilities stay fixed after publication. Each checkpoint has its own accuracy record, and missing checkpoints are never generated after the fact.
Current analysis is a different observation
Where supported, live analysis can change as the observed state changes. It does not overwrite a published original. An expired observation belongs in history, not under a current label.
Experimental means what it says
An experimental forecast can be useful to inspect while its evidence is still being evaluated. That label does not authorize a betting recommendation. Check the model label, publication time and available inputs.
SharpDeck field notes · Published September 9, 2026. Product explanations, not betting recommendations.