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A probability leaves room for another outcome
A 60% estimate means the model assigns a 40% chance to the other outcomes combined. It is not a promise. A single loss does not establish whether a probability was well calibrated; that takes an appropriate sample of recorded forecasts.
The checkpoint matters
SharpDeck records the 24-hour early forecast and the 60-minute main forecast independently. The selection and probabilities stay fixed after publication. Each checkpoint has its own accuracy record, and missing checkpoints are never generated after the fact.
Current analysis is a different observation
Where supported, live analysis can change as the observed state changes. It does not overwrite a published original. An expired observation belongs in history, not under a current label.
Read the model label
A forecast from a model that has not passed review can be useful to inspect while its evidence is still being evaluated, and it is labelled as such. Check the model label, publication time and available inputs. Whether a forecast is worth backing depends on the price, which is a separate question with its own record.
SharpDeck field notes. Product explanations and worked examples, not betting recommendations.